Kiel — Dynamo Dresden

Holstein Kiel at home: 0.10 xG difference per match (10 records); SG Dynamo Dresden away: -0.53 (10 records). Unadjusted historical team xG, not a match probability.

Home win occurred in 2 of 10 recorded at home league matches (20%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.

The starting XI has not been confirmed by the source.

Abe T., Muqaj H., Rosenboom L., Roslyng F. and 2 more. Their effect is not counted as a probability adjustment.

Home win occurred in 5 of 10 recorded away league matches (50%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.

The starting XI has not been confirmed by the source.

Bunning L., Keller T., Schmidt K.. Their effect is not counted as a probability adjustment.

11/11 listed starters have paired xG and xA. Harres P.: 0.56 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 900 minutes); scored in 6/10 appearances with recorded goals; Kapralik A.: 0.46 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 803 minutes); scored in 1/10 appearances with recorded goals; Balzi G.: 0.45 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 791 minutes); scored in 2/10 appearances with recorded goals. Individual historical rates describe these players; their sum is not expected team goals.

4/4 identified starting defenders have observed errors leading to shots. Sekine H.: 0.11 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 833 minutes); Nekic I.: 0.10 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 881 minutes); Zec D.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 826 minutes); Parduzi L.: 0.19 errors leading to shots/90 (9 appearances, 484 minutes). Sekine H.: 58/92 duels won (10 appearances); Nekic I.: 42/80 duels won (10 appearances); Zec D.: 43/78 duels won (10 appearances); Parduzi L.: 33/64 duels won (9 appearances). Missing defensive metrics are unknown, including when a player's position is unpublished.

Weiner T.: -0.27 goals prevented/90 (10 appearances, 900 minutes).

Bench unpublished. Abe T.: missing (Back Injury); historical 0.11 xG+xA/90 from 788 minutes. Muqaj H.: missing (Knee Injury); personal attacking data unavailable. Rosenboom L.: missing (Knee Injury); historical 0.15 xG+xA/90 from 646 minutes. Roslyng F.: missing (Knee Injury); historical 0.02 xG+xA/90 from 319 minutes. Schonlau S.: missing (Injury); historical 0.06 xG+xA/90 from 75 minutes. Skrzybski S.: missing (Muscle Injury); historical 0.31 xG+xA/90 from 578 minutes. A specific replacement is not inferred from a shared position; replacement quality remains unconfirmed without a comparable profile.

11/11 listed starters have paired xG and xA. Vermeij V.: 0.48 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 779 minutes); scored in 3/10 appearances with recorded goals; Covic P.: 0.40 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 383 minutes); scored in 2/10 appearances with recorded goals; Hauptmann N.: 0.31 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 772 minutes); scored in 3/10 appearances with recorded goals. Individual historical rates describe these players; their sum is not expected team goals.

5/5 identified starting defenders have observed errors leading to shots. Sterner J.: 0.12 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 725 minutes); Muhamedbegovic A.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (7 appearances, 327 minutes); Muller F.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 720 minutes); Straudi S.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (6 appearances, 352 minutes); Rapp N.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 793 minutes). Sterner J.: 25/56 duels won (10 appearances); Muhamedbegovic A.: 20/30 duels won (7 appearances); Muller F.: 32/52 duels won (10 appearances); Straudi S.: 9/22 duels won (6 appearances); Rapp N.: 30/54 duels won (10 appearances). Missing defensive metrics are unknown, including when a player's position is unpublished.

Grill L.: 0.02 goals prevented/90 (10 appearances, 900 minutes).

Bench unpublished. Bunning L.: missing (Head Injury); historical 0.09 xG+xA/90 from 600 minutes. Keller T.: missing (Inactive); historical 0.08 xG+xA/90 from 834 minutes. Schmidt K.: missing (Knee Injury); historical 0.07 xG+xA/90 from 783 minutes. A specific replacement is not inferred from a shared position; replacement quality remains unconfirmed without a comparable profile.

Holstein Kiel: 2.48 summed individual xG+xA/90; SG Dynamo Dresden: 2.24. Both published XIs have 11 observed profiles. These are descriptive player rates, unadjusted for past opponents and playing roles, not a match goal forecast.