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Al Nassr face Neom SC in SAUDI ARABIA: Saudi Professional League. Our statistical model analyzed head-to-head records, recent form and key metrics.
Our top pick for this match is BTS: Yes at odds of 1.65. Additional pick: W1 at odds of 1.36.
Predictions use recent historical data, home and away splits and head-to-head records. See the tables above for the complete breakdown.
Model chance of each outcome
| Player | A | G |
|---|---|---|
 Lacazette A. | 1 | 5 |
 Ronaldo C. | 0 | 4 |
 Angelo | 2 | 3 |
 Kone A. | 2 | 3 |
| Samu Costa | 0 | 3 |
| Joao Felix | 3 | 2 |
 Mane S. | 3 | 2 |
in last 6 Al Nassr home games.in last 6 Al Nassr home games.Predictions are locked
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in last 6 Al Nassr home games.in last 6 Al Nassr home games.(include only SPL 5 matches of 5)
| Statistic | NAS | NEO |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Scored | 1.8 | 2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 0.8 |
| xG | 1.84 | 1.4 |
| xGA | 0.81 | 0.78 |
| Shots | 16.6 | 13.4 |
| Shots on Target | 6.4 | 4.2 |
| Shots Inside Box | 12.2 | 8.4 |
| Big Chances | 3.6 | 2.2 |
| No. | Player | Position | Apps | Rating | xG + xA/match | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | — | 8 | 6.5 | 0.06 | ||
| GK | 0 | — | GP — | |||
 | — | 10 | 7.3 | 0.25 | ||
 | — | 7 | 6.8 | 0.05 | ||
 | — | 0 | 7.0 | — | ||
 | — | 0 | 6.0 | — | ||
 | — | 0 | — | — | ||
 | — | 0 | — | — | ||
| — | 0 | — | — |
| No. | Player | Position | Apps | Rating | xG + xA/match | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | — | 0 | 6.5 | — | ||
 | — | 0 | 6.3 | — | ||
 | — | 0 | — | — | ||
 | — | 0 | 6.7 | — | ||
 | — | 0 | 6.4 | — | ||
 | GK | 0 | — | GP — | ||
 | — | 0 | 6.6 | — | ||
 | — | 0 | 6.4 | — | ||
 | — | 0 | 7.3 | — |
xG + xA per appearance · last 20 actual club appearances. Goalkeepers: GP = goals prevented per appearance.
Unavailable or doubtful players and their recent performance
No absences listed · source coverage unconfirmed
No absences listed · source coverage unconfirmed
Confirmed, likely and doubtful changes compared to the previous match.
Confirmed to start
Not in the starting XI
Confirmed to start
Not in the starting XI
Recent averages per appearance
Compare recent form, attack and defence stats
Results: 10/10 · xG: 10/10Oldest → latest
Results: 10/10 · xG: 10/10Oldest → latest
Known results and paired xG only. Green marks the stronger value. Fewer conceded is better.
Last 10 matches · Latest first · score from team’s perspective
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG (team – opp.) | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPL |  Al Diriyah | 3 : 0 | 2.46 : 0.64 | W | |
| SPL |  Abha | 2 : 1 | 1.34 : 0.27 | W | |
| SPL |  Al Taawon | 2 : 1 | 2.21 : 0.89 | W | |
| SPL |  Al Fateh | 3 : 0 | 1.42 : 0.77 | W | |
| SPL | 4 : 1 | 1.27 : 0.87 | W |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG (team – opp.) | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPL |  Al Hazem | 1 : 1 | 1.58 : 0.67 | D | |
| SPL |  Al Hilal | 2 : 0 | 1.08 : 1.73 | W | |
| SPL |  Al Riyadh | 0 : 1 | 0.77 : 0.75 | L | |
| SPL |  Al-Faisaly | 2 : 0 | 1.30 : 0.60 | W | |
| SPL | 0 : 2 | 0.68 : 2.12 | L |
Key betting markets and team-specific insights
Recent frequency in each team’s separate home/away league history. These percentages are not probabilities or picks for this match.
Home win occurred in 9 of 10 recorded at home league matches (90%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.
Al Nassr at home: 1.41 xG difference per match (10 records); Neom SC away: -0.12 (10 records). Unadjusted historical team xG, not a match probability.
Home win occurred in 4 of 10 recorded away league matches (40%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.
No additional checks.
Each metric has its own coverage. Missing data stays unknown.
Model chance of each outcome
Statistical model estimate for the upcoming match.
Statistical model estimate for the upcoming match.
(include only SPL 5 matches of 5)
| Statistic | NAS | NEO |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Scored | 1.8 | 2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 0.8 |
| xG | 1.84 | 1.4 |
| xGA | 0.81 | 0.78 |
| Shots | 16.6 | 13.4 |
| Shots on Target | 6.4 | 4.2 |
| Shots Inside Box | 12.2 | 8.4 |
| Big Chances | 3.6 | 2.2 |
Predictions are locked
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Register freePredictions are locked
Register free| Player | A | G |
|---|---|---|
| Lacazette A. | 1 | 5 |
| Ronaldo C. | 0 | 4 |
| Angelo | 2 | 3 |
| Kone A. | 2 | 3 |
| Samu Costa | 0 | 3 |
| Joao Felix | 3 | 2 |
| Mane S. | 3 | 2 |
