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AS Roma face Cagliari in ITALY: Serie A. Our statistical model analyzed head-to-head records, recent form and key metrics.
Our top pick for this match is W1 at odds of 1.33.
Predictions use recent historical data, home and away splits and head-to-head records. See the tables above for the complete breakdown.
| # | MP | W% | G | +/- | PTS | AVG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 8 | 88% | 23:10 | +13 | 22 | 4.13 |
| 2 | Lazio | 8 | 88% | 16:5 | +11 | 22 | 2.63 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 8 | 63% | 19:6 | +13 | 18 | 3.13 |
| 4 | Como | 8 | 63% | 14:7 | +7 | 17 | 2.63 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 7 | 57% | 14:7 | +7 | 15 | 3.00 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 8 | 50% | 17:13 | +4 | 14 | 3.75 |
| 7 | Juventus | 8 | 50% | 11:8 | +3 | 14 | 2.38 |
| Player | A | G |
|---|---|---|
 Malen D. | 1 | 6 |
 Maldini D. | 0 | 4 |
 Soule M. | 1 | 3 |
| Balerdi L. | 0 | 2 |
 Kone M. | 0 | 2 |
| Pisilli N. | 0 | 2 |
| Castro S. | 1 | 1 |
in last 15 AS Roma games (ITALY: Serie A).Predictions are locked
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in last 15 AS Roma games (ITALY: Serie A).(include only SA 5 matches of 5)
| Statistic | ROM | CAG |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Scored | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.6 |
| xG | 1.59 | 1.01 |
| xGA | 1.5 | 1.76 |
| Shots | 16 | 6.8 |
| Shots on Target | 4 | 3 |
| Shots Inside Box | 10.8 | 5 |
| Big Chances | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| # | MP | W% | G | +/- | PTS | AVG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 8 | 88% | 23:10 | +13 | 22 | 4.13 |
| 2 | Lazio | 8 | 88% | 16:5 | +11 | 22 | 2.63 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 8 | 63% | 19:6 | +13 | 18 | 3.13 |
| 4 | Como | 8 | 63% | 14:7 | +7 | 17 | 2.63 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 7 | 57% | 14:7 | +7 | 15 | 3.00 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 8 | 50% | 17:13 | +4 | 14 | 3.75 |
| 7 | Juventus | 8 | 50% | 11:8 | +3 | 14 | 2.38 |
| Player | A | G |
|---|---|---|
| Malen D. | 1 | 6 |
| Maldini D. | 0 | 4 |
| Soule M. | 1 | 3 |
| Balerdi L. | 0 | 2 |
| Kone M. | 0 | 2 |
| Pisilli N. | 0 | 2 |
| Castro S. | 1 | 1 |
Bench not published
Bench not published
xG + xA per appearance · last 20 actual club appearances. Goalkeepers: GP = goals prevented per appearance.
Unavailable or doubtful players and their recent performance
Confirmed, likely and doubtful changes compared to the previous match.
Expected to start
Replacement assessment incomplete
Expected to start
Replacement assessment incomplete
Recent averages per appearance
Compare recent form, attack and defence stats
Results: 10/10 · xG: 10/10Oldest → latest
Results: 10/10 · xG: 10/10Oldest → latest
Known results and paired xG only. Green marks the stronger value. Fewer conceded is better.
Last 10 matches · Latest first · score from team’s perspective
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG (team – opp.) | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA |  Genoa | 2 : 0 | 1.33 : 0.47 | W | |
| SA |  Inter | 2 : 2 | 1.66 : 2.86 | D | |
| SA |  Atalanta | 2 : 1 | 2.96 : 0.70 | W | |
| SA |  Fiorentina | 4 : 0 | 3.07 : 0.35 | W | |
| SA |  Lazio | 2 : 0 | 1.19 : 0.69 | W |
Key betting markets and team-specific insights
Recent frequency in each team’s separate home/away league history. These percentages are not probabilities or picks for this match.
Home win occurred in 7 of 10 recorded at home league matches (70%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.
AS Roma at home: 0.80 xG difference per match (10 records); Cagliari away: -0.19 (10 records). Unadjusted historical team xG, not a match probability.
Home win occurred in 4 of 10 recorded away league matches (40%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.
The starting XI has not been confirmed by the source.
Bah M., Dybala P., Kone M., Pellegrini Lo. and 1 more. Their effect is not counted as a probability adjustment.
The starting XI has not been confirmed by the source.
Felici M., Idrissi R., Trepy Y., Winks H.. Their effect is not counted as a probability adjustment.
11/11 listed starters have paired xG and xA. Malen D.: 1.02 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 718 minutes); scored in 5/10 appearances with recorded goals; Mora R.: 0.63 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 406 minutes); scored in 1/10 appearances with recorded goals; Soule M.: 0.58 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 644 minutes); scored in 3/10 appearances with recorded goals. Individual historical rates describe these players; their sum is not expected team goals.
5/5 identified starting defenders have observed errors leading to shots. Mancini G.: 0.13 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 716 minutes); Ndicka E.: 0.24 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 764 minutes); Hermoso M.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 744 minutes); Molina N.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 556 minutes); Wesley Franca: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 761 minutes). Mancini G.: 31/65 duels won (10 appearances); Ndicka E.: 34/63 duels won (10 appearances); Hermoso M.: 36/60 duels won (10 appearances); Molina N.: 30/57 duels won (10 appearances); Wesley Franca: 44/82 duels won (10 appearances). Missing defensive metrics are unknown, including when a player's position is unpublished.
Gollini P.: -0.52 goals prevented/90 (10 appearances, 900 minutes).
Bench unpublished. Bah M.: missing (Knee Injury); personal attacking data unavailable. Dybala P.: missing (Calf Injury); historical 0.86 xG+xA/90 from 809 minutes. Kone M.: missing (Muscle Injury); historical 0.17 xG+xA/90 from 574 minutes. Pellegrini Lo.: missing (Thigh Injury); historical 0.44 xG+xA/90 from 556 minutes. Svilar M.: missing (Toe Injury); historical 0.00 xG+xA/90 from 900 minutes. A specific replacement is not inferred from a shared position; replacement quality remains unconfirmed without a comparable profile.
11/11 listed starters have paired xG and xA. Maldini D.: 0.56 xG+xA/90 (9 appearances, 568 minutes); scored in 4/10 appearances with recorded goals; Mendy P.: 0.45 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 671 minutes); scored in 2/10 appearances with recorded goals; Fadera A.: 0.36 xG+xA/90 (8 appearances, 258 minutes); scored in 0/10 appearances with recorded goals. Individual historical rates describe these players; their sum is not expected team goals.
4/4 identified starting defenders have observed errors leading to shots. Pedro J.: 0.13 errors leading to shots/90 (9 appearances, 714 minutes); Mina Y.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 900 minutes); Rodriguez J.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (9 appearances, 710 minutes); Obert A.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (9 appearances, 756 minutes). Pedro J.: 20/50 duels won (9 appearances); Mina Y.: 53/79 duels won (10 appearances); Rodriguez J.: 36/67 duels won (9 appearances); Obert A.: 35/58 duels won (9 appearances). Missing defensive metrics are unknown, including when a player's position is unpublished.
Caprile E.: 0.34 goals prevented/90 (9 appearances, 810 minutes).
Bench unpublished. Felici M.: missing (Knee Injury); historical 0.21 xG+xA/90 from 319 minutes. Idrissi R.: missing (Knee Injury); historical 0.09 xG+xA/90 from 288 minutes. Trepy Y.: missing (Injury); historical 0.49 xG+xA/90 from 56 minutes. Winks H.: missing (Back Injury); historical 0.08 xG+xA/90 from 843 minutes. A specific replacement is not inferred from a shared position; replacement quality remains unconfirmed without a comparable profile.
AS Roma: 3.61 summed individual xG+xA/90; Cagliari: 1.99. Both published XIs have 11 observed profiles. These are descriptive player rates, unadjusted for past opponents and playing roles, not a match goal forecast.
Each metric has its own coverage. Missing data stays unknown.
(include only SA 5 matches of 5)
| Statistic | ROM | CAG |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Scored | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.6 |
| xG | 1.59 | 1.01 |
| xGA | 1.5 | 1.76 |
| Shots | 16 | 6.8 |
| Shots on Target | 4 | 3 |
| Shots Inside Box | 10.8 | 5 |
| Big Chances | 2.2 | 1.8 |
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