Barcelona
Real MadridSee whether sources agree, which bookmaker has the best price found and how that price has changed since opening.
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Barcelona face Real Madrid in LaLiga. Our statistical model analyzed head-to-head records, recent form and key metrics.
Predictions use recent historical data, home and away splits and head-to-head records. See the tables above for the complete breakdown.
| # | MP | W% | G | +/- | PTS | AVG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | 100% | 39:9 | +30 | 27 | 5.33 |
| 2 | Atl. Madrid | 9 | 78% | 19:8 | +11 | 22 | 3.00 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | 78% | 23:9 | +14 | 21 | 3.56 |
| 4 | Betis | 9 | 67% | 16:14 | +2 | 19 | 3.33 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 56% | 17:17 | 0 | 16 | 3.78 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | 44% | 14:16 | -2 | 14 | 3.33 |
| 7 | Alaves | 9 | 33% | 13:10 | +3 | 11 | 2.56 |
in last 10 Barcelona games.in last 8 Real Madrid games (LaLiga).in last 6 Real Madrid games (LaLiga).Predictions are locked
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in last 10 Barcelona games.in last 8 Real Madrid games (LaLiga).in last 6 Real Madrid games (LaLiga).(include only LL 5 matches of 5)
| Statistic | BAR | RMA |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Scored | 4.4 | 2.6 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| xG | 3.5 | 1.95 |
| xGA | 1.17 | 1.15 |
| Shots | 21.4 | 15.6 |
| Shots on Target | 8 | 6 |
| Shots Inside Box | 13.8 | 10.6 |
| Big Chances | 6.6 | 3 |
Bench not published
Bench not published
xG + xA per appearance · last 20 actual club appearances. Goalkeepers: GP = goals prevented per appearance.
Unavailable or doubtful players and their recent performance
Confirmed, likely and doubtful changes compared to the previous match.
Expected to start
Status uncertain
Replacement assessment incomplete
Expected to start
Status uncertain
Replacement assessment incomplete
Recent averages per appearance
Compare recent form, attack and defence stats
Results: 10/10 · xG: 10/10Oldest → latest
Results: 10/10 · xG: 10/10Oldest → latest
Known results and paired xG only. Green marks the stronger value. Fewer conceded is better.
Last 10 matches · Latest first · score from team’s perspective
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG (team – opp.) | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LL |  Getafe | 3 : 0 | 1.94 : 0.14 | W | |
| LL |  Racing Santander | 7 : 2 | 6.74 : 1.98 | W | |
| LL |  Rayo Vallecano | 5 : 2 | 3.04 : 1.21 | W | |
| LL |  Ath Bilbao | 2 : 0 | 4.23 : 0.25 | W | |
| LL |  Betis | 3 : 1 | 1.12 : 0.97 | W |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG (team – opp.) | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LL |  Atl. Madrid | 1 : 2 | 0.30 : 2.35 | L | |
| LL |  Elche | 3 : 2 | 3.62 : 0.78 | W | |
| LL | Betis | 0 : 1 | 3.46 : 0.93 | L | |
| LL |  Espanyol | 2 : 1 | 2.70 : 1.05 | W | |
| LL |  Sevilla | 1 : 0 | 1.00 : 0.72 | W |
Key betting markets and team-specific insights
Recent frequency in each team’s separate home/away league history. These percentages are not probabilities or picks for this match.
Home win occurred in 10 of 10 recorded at home league matches (100%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.
Barcelona at home: 1.74 xG difference per match (10 records); Real Madrid away: 0.60 (10 records). Unadjusted historical team xG, not a match probability.
Home win occurred in 4 of 10 recorded away league matches (40%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.
The starting XI has not been confirmed by the source.
Bardghji R., Garcia E., Olmo D., Christensen A. and 1 more. Their effect is not counted as a probability adjustment.
The starting XI has not been confirmed by the source.
Asencio R., Rodrygo, Vinicius Junior, Mendy F.. Their effect is not counted as a probability adjustment.
11/11 listed starters have paired xG and xA. Raphinha: 1.48 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 706 minutes); scored in 7/10 appearances with recorded goals; Lamine Yamal: 1.16 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 856 minutes); scored in 7/10 appearances with recorded goals; Fermin: 0.73 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 612 minutes); scored in 3/10 appearances with recorded goals. Individual historical rates describe these players; their sum is not expected team goals.
4/4 identified starting defenders have observed errors leading to shots. Espart X.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 767 minutes); Cubarsi P.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 844 minutes); Martin G.: 0.12 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 751 minutes); Cancelo J.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 483 minutes). Espart X.: 52/86 duels won (10 appearances); Cubarsi P.: 41/66 duels won (10 appearances); Martin G.: 28/46 duels won (10 appearances); Cancelo J.: 25/53 duels won (10 appearances). Missing defensive metrics are unknown, including when a player's position is unpublished.
Garcia J.: 0.12 goals prevented/90 (10 appearances, 855 minutes).
Bench unpublished. Bardghji R.: missing (Knee Injury); historical 0.36 xG+xA/90 from 371 minutes. Garcia E.: missing (Muscle Injury); historical 0.23 xG+xA/90 from 739 minutes. Olmo D.: missing (Groin Injury); historical 0.68 xG+xA/90 from 464 minutes. Christensen A.: doubtful (Muscle Injury); historical 0.19 xG+xA/90 from 608 minutes. Kounde J.: doubtful (Ankle Injury); historical 0.18 xG+xA/90 from 638 minutes. A specific replacement is not inferred from a shared position; replacement quality remains unconfirmed without a comparable profile.
11/11 listed starters have paired xG and xA. Guler A.: 1.12 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 549 minutes); scored in 3/10 appearances with recorded goals; Mbappe K.: 1.10 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 891 minutes); scored in 7/10 appearances with recorded goals; Bellingham J.: 0.47 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 798 minutes); scored in 2/10 appearances with recorded goals. Individual historical rates describe these players; their sum is not expected team goals.
4/4 identified starting defenders have observed errors leading to shots. Valverde F.: 0.11 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 829 minutes); Konate I.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 900 minutes); Huijsen D.: 0.11 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 792 minutes); Cucurella M.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 682 minutes). Valverde F.: 28/49 duels won (10 appearances); Konate I.: 31/58 duels won (10 appearances); Huijsen D.: 31/52 duels won (10 appearances); Cucurella M.: 34/54 duels won (10 appearances). Missing defensive metrics are unknown, including when a player's position is unpublished.
Courtois T.: 0.05 goals prevented/90 (10 appearances, 900 minutes).
Bench unpublished. Asencio R.: missing (Broken Leg); historical 0.10 xG+xA/90 from 842 minutes. Rodrygo: missing (Knee Injury); historical 0.72 xG+xA/90 from 624 minutes. Vinicius Junior: missing (Red Card); historical 0.67 xG+xA/90 from 711 minutes. Mendy F.: doubtful (Hip Injury); historical 0.02 xG+xA/90 from 463 minutes. A specific replacement is not inferred from a shared position; replacement quality remains unconfirmed without a comparable profile.
Barcelona: 5.13 summed individual xG+xA/90; Real Madrid: 3.49. Both published XIs have 11 observed profiles. These are descriptive player rates, unadjusted for past opponents and playing roles, not a match goal forecast.
Each metric has its own coverage. Missing data stays unknown.
(include only LL 5 matches of 5)
| Statistic | BAR | RMA |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Scored | 4.4 | 2.6 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| xG | 3.5 | 1.95 |
| xGA | 1.17 | 1.15 |
| Shots | 21.4 | 15.6 |
| Shots on Target | 8 | 6 |
| Shots Inside Box | 13.8 | 10.6 |
| Big Chances | 6.6 | 3 |
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Register free| # | MP | W% | G | +/- | PTS | AVG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | 100% | 39:9 | +30 | 27 | 5.33 |
| 2 | Atl. Madrid | 9 | 78% | 19:8 | +11 | 22 | 3.00 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | 78% | 23:9 | +14 | 21 | 3.56 |
| 4 | Betis | 9 | 67% | 16:14 | +2 | 19 | 3.33 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 56% | 17:17 | 0 | 16 | 3.78 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | 44% | 14:16 | -2 | 14 | 3.33 |
| 7 | Alaves | 9 | 33% | 13:10 | +3 | 11 | 2.56 |
